Sat, Oct 20, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 19 | 16 | 322 |
| CAR | 011 | 016 | 116 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:13COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 16:51COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 17:27CARMicheal FerlandAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:19CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:39COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:33CARCalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
- P2 11:50COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:57COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:42CARMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:42COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:22COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:01CARLucas Wallmark: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:20CARJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:20COLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50COLGabriel Bourque: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:00
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost6:35
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Kamenev6:05
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:15
xG 0.65–0.98 (40%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Cole2:24
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard2:11
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie7:27
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:38
xG 0.72–0.41 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho9:42
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- McGinn – Zykov – Bishop5:48
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele10:15
xG 0.84–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – van Riemsdyk10:27
xG 0.97–0.35 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- de Haan – Faulk12:30
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin13:15
xG 0.99–0.78 (56%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).