Sat, Oct 20, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 39 | 05 | 13 | 431 |
| FLA | 212 | 011 | 112 | 02 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34FLAKeith YandleAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:10FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 5:47DETDennis CholowskiPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:05DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Dennis Cholowski · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:50DETDylan LarkinAssists: Darren Helm, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:44FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 3:44DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 5:36FLABogdan Kiselevich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:40FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39DETAnthony Mantha: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:26DETThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:35DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:22FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:49DETDennis Cholowski: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:52DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:15DETDarren Helm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Nyquist – Larkin13:33
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Rasmussen8:10
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Mantha – Ehn4:09
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi10:11
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen7:02
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Hicketts4:33
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Hicketts5:48
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Hoffman – Lammikko4:47
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:30
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin9:04
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:34
xG 0.06–0.43 (13%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Ekblad17:20
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Matheson16:10
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kiselevich10:21
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).