Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 05 | 311 | 426 |
| CBJ | 112 | 016 | 010 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:09CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 7:43CHIMarcus KrugerGWGAssists: Alexandre Fortin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 15:46CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:23CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:06CHIHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:42CBJCam Atkinson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:04CHIAndreas Martinsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00CHIHenri Jokiharju: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:55CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:29CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:13CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Kruger – Fortin2:38
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:06
xG 0.66–0.80 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Kruger – Martinsen – Fortin5:47
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Saad – Kampf9:46
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Gustafsson12:49
xG 0.71–0.78 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Keith – Jokiharju14:49
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Davidson – Rutta12:39
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Anderson – Milano8:19
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois11:14
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Nash – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand7:17
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Duclair – Wennberg7:50
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Kukan12:33
xG 0.80–0.42 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski16:23
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 19–12goals 0–2
- Murray – Nutivaara12:33
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).