Sat, Oct 20, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 3, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 211 | 110 | 328 |
| EDM | 04 | 09 | 018 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:14NSHP.K. SubbanSHGWGAssists: Colton Sissons, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 14:42NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Nick Bonino, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 19:07NSHRoman JosiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:49EDMKris Russell: Interference2 min
- P1 9:47EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:04NSHZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P2 5:44NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 12:32NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:12EDMJason Garrison: Interference2 min
- P3 10:58NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:56EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala9:21
xG 0.49–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:47
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Sissons – Gaudreau4:27
xG 0.01–0.17 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman5:46
xG 0.03–0.34 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:35
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm11:43
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber8:46
xG 0.11–0.30 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Yamamoto9:20
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira3:21
xG 0.11–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rieder – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi8:06
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Strome5:55
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse13:12
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Garrison – Bouchard5:59
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:44
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).