Sat, Oct 20, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 07 | 011 | 125 |
| SJS | 111 | 215 | 115 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:27NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:59SJSJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Antti Suomela · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:50SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 4:32SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 16:59NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 11:53NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:53SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:10NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:10SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:29SJSEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:52NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:08SJSBrent Burns: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:08NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:08NYICal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:08NYICasey Cizikas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:26SJSEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:26NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Nelson11:50
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:36
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Filppula – Komarov – Kuhnhackl7:53
xG 0.00–0.74 (0%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal9:49
xG 0.06–1.33 (4%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock2:44
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Pelech9:46
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:54
xG 0.01–0.00 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Sorensen – Suomela11:19
xG 1.18–0.15 (89%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier11:16
xG 1.18–0.23 (84%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Pavelski – Kane – Labanc11:34
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier9:47
xG 0.09–0.55 (14%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson14:33
xG 1.15–0.06 (95%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Dillon13:40
xG 0.92–0.17 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan12:02
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).