Sun, Oct 21, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 217 | 214 | 445 |
| ANA | 18 | 110 | 010 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:42ANASam SteelAssists: Rickard Rakell, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:32ANAKiefer SherwoodAssists: Maxime Comtois, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 16:03BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 17:31BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jason Pominville, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 3:57BUFRasmus RistolainenPPGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:43BUFPatrik BerglundENAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:29ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:56BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P2 6:32BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:32ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:08ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:21ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:12ANAAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52BUFConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Sheary – Reinhart11:32
xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel14:16
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons9:01
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:48
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen15:04
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Scandella12:03
xG 0.69–0.57 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:26
xG 0.06–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Street – Aberg7:26
xG 0.20–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Aberg2:59
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rakell – Steel – Lundeström7:43
xG 0.24–0.37 (40%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Gibbons7:19
xG 0.48–0.65 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour15:25
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Fowler – Manson18:06
xG 0.19–0.64 (23%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Sustr – Pettersson11:25
xG 0.25–1.16 (18%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).