Mon, Oct 22, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 213 | 27 | 533 |
| VAN | 06 | 112 | 16 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 7:30VANTroy StecherUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:29WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 19:34WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Deflected, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 0:20VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 5:35WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 18:19WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:52WSHMichal Kempny: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:52VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:55WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:28VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:22WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:47VANErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:45WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P3 4:31VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29VANSven Baertschi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Stephenson10:17
xG 0.89–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Jaskin – Burakovsky8:17
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly8:49
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana10:45
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Djoos9:36
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny14:19
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov13:51
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Schaller – Motte5:31
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Virtanen – Gaudette8:25
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Horvat – Goldobin – Boeser11:15
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Roussel8:53
xG 0.22–0.95 (19%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pouliot – Stecher15:13
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev12:45
xG 0.31–0.65 (33%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Hutton13:43
xG 0.27–0.95 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).