Tue, Oct 23, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 114 | 010 | 114 | 238 |
| NYR | 05 | 312 | 25 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 3:10NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Adam McQuaid · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:36NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 16:08NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 1:27NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 10:37FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:08NYRKevin HayesENAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.77 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:18FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30FLADenis Malgin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47FLAMaxim Mamin: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:47NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:47NYRBrendan Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:51NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min
- P2 18:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:43FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P3 14:51NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – McCann – Vatrano7:08
xG 0.99–0.33 (75%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:23
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau3:01
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Lammikko – Mamin2:51
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich11:00
xG 1.24–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad13:55
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Yandle – Petrovic14:30
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Fast – Chytil11:06
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad9:07
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Vesey – Buchnevich – Howden9:10
xG 0.38–0.61 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- McLeod – Spooner – Namestnikov4:39
xG 0.04–0.65 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei2:50
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pionk2:31
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith8:40
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).