Tue, Oct 23, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 08 | 18 | 223 |
| MTL | 012 | 322 | 06 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:46CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:50MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 17:29MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 19:11MTLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Xavier Ouellet · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 11:10CGYElias LindholmAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:19MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:24MTLAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
- P1 19:53CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:47MTLJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:01CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P2 9:21CGYDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:47CGYTJ Brodie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26CGYNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36MTLAndrew Shaw: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:04MTLMax Domi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peca won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk3:08
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Neal – Backlund – Bennett5:39
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Bennett – Ryan2:41
xG 0.02–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie10:58
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Välimäki2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Välimäki10:23
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Kotkaniemi8:57
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi8:43
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault9:53
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw3:23
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Mete10:50
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn13:57
xG 0.68–0.80 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Reilly – Juulsen12:10
xG 0.12–0.34 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).