Tue, Oct 23, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 115 | 17 | 210 | 432 |
| OTT | 010 | 114 | 015 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:17BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Danton Heinen, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 17:51OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:09BOSDavid KrejciPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 0:21BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 5:31BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:59BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:30BOSNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 15:15OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:19BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:27OTTAlex Formenton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:05OTTRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:47BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:48BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Nordstrom – Bjork10:26
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk11:48
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:11
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Donato – Acciari7:06
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Moore2:43
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo15:21
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Grzelcyk3:42
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Stone – Tierney3:32
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Dzingel – Tierney4:20
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi8:32
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – White4:46
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJaros – Lajoie3:23
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros10:07
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Wideman – Chabot9:53
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).