Tue, Oct 23, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 17 | 314 | 532 |
| NSH | 112 | 38 | 09 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:14NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:21NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 7:51SJSTomas HertlAssists: Logan Couture, Timo Meier · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:45NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 19:45NSHCraig SmithAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 11:40SJSBrenden DillonSHAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 12:16SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Logan Couture, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 17:08SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:17SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:24NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:32NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40SJSJoakim Ryan: Interference2 min
- P3 3:38NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:54SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 9:57SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:15NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Pavelski – Kane – Labanc10:02
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Sorensen – Suomela8:04
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier7:01
xG 0.08–0.07 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier9:43
xG 0.27–0.88 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon5:51
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Dillon3:38
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan8:43
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:30
xG 1.03–0.18 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 3–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons7:18
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala8:16
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman8:30
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis12:19
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Subban – Ekholm12:26
xG 0.50–0.36 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber4:42
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).