Wed, Oct 24, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Florida Panthers 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 013 | 213 | 12 | 341 |
| NYI | 110 | 16 | 06 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 11:42NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 2:46FLAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 10:35FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 0:33FLAMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:00NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:20FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:55FLATroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:55NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:32NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:19NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:00NYINick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:18FLANick Bjugstad: Delaying game2 min
- P3 18:35NYIMathew Barzal: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:56
xG 0.86–0.12 (88%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau8:21
xG 0.32–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Mamin4:46
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – McCann – Vatrano4:36
xG 0.02–0.07 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich13:29
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad12:52
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Yandle – Petrovic15:45
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 26–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:07
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal9:16
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier6:29
xG 0.04–0.49 (7%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson11:55
xG 0.11–0.59 (15%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Pelech13:07
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield14:04
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pulock15:31
xG 0.14–0.97 (12%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).