Wed, Oct 24, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Colorado Avalanche 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 08 | 112 | 124 |
| COL | 011 | 06 | 05 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:24TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:11TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:04COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:10TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:50COLMarko Dano: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:50TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:56COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:00TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:35COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49TBLAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette8:13
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:17
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:54
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Gourde – Point9:03
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman12:33
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev12:45
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh14:48
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Andrighetto7:20
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:33
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bourque – Dano – Jost4:29
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:34
xG 0.04–0.37 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard13:30
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole2:22
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov7:50
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).