Wed, Oct 24, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 28 | 05 | 05 | 1 | 326 |
| VGK | 09 | 213 | 09 | 04 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:18VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 4:22VANBo HorvatAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brendan Leipsic · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:26VANBo HorvatAssists: Tim Schaller, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:39VGKRyan ReavesAssists: William Carrier, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
- 2. VGK Erik Haula stopped
- 3. VAN Nikolay Goldobin stopped
- 4. VGK Max Pacioretty stopped
- 5. VAN Brendan Leipsic stopped
- 6. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 7. VAN Markus Granlund scored
- 8. VGK William Karlsson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:14VGKShea Theodore: Elbowing2 min
- P1 4:19VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:04VANChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 14:48VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P3 1:20VANJake Virtanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Leipsic – Horvat10:46
xG 0.89–0.37 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 1–2
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen11:16
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Schaller – Motte – Horvat4:21
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Granlund – Schaller – Motte7:31
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Stecher5:33
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hutton6:15
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Pouliot4:01
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:46
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Eakin – Hyka – Nosek8:24
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:57
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Haula – Tuch9:54
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Hunt13:13
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore12:55
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- McNabb – Miller18:01
xG 0.86–0.89 (49%)attempts 18–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).