Thu, Oct 25, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 011 | 08 | 026 |
| BOS | 07 | 211 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:00BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: Danton Heinen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 17:28BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Krejci, Steven Kampfer · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 19:37BOSZdeno CharaENAssists: Jaroslav Halak · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:11BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P1 7:11PHIClaude Giroux: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:27PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:05BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:32PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:38BOSSteven Kampfer: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38BOSSteven Kampfer: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:34BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:30PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03BOSJake DeBrusk: Interference2 min
- P3 16:03PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:03PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03PHIScott Laughton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:06PHIOskar Lindblom: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Weise – Knight6:26
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:51
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Lindblom6:27
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Laughton2:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Sanheim8:51
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov13:37
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim3:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Heinen – DeBrusk8:50
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Bjork7:42
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:26
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Donato – Acciari5:02
xG 0.02–0.64 (3%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo15:48
xG 0.57–0.20 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Grzelcyk12:46
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chara – Moore2:40
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).