Thu, Oct 25, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 117 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 436 |
| NJD | 218 | 16 | 011 | 01 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:40NSHYannick WeberAssists: Kevin Fiala, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:01NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:06NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:46NJDNico HischierAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 13:40NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 3:35NSHKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:16NJDTaylor Hall: Interference2 min
- P1 17:53NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18NSHZac Rinaldo: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 15:02NJDJean-Sebastien Dea: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:52NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:25NJDMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:05NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:19
xG 0.82–0.45 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Bonino – Rinaldo – Hartman7:51
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Fiala7:18
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Grimaldi11:03
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:35
xG 1.16–0.70 (62%)attempts 25–13goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis18:09
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto8:02
xG 0.31–0.46 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier10:12
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Zajac – Wood – Quenneville10:08
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Coleman – Noesen5:35
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Dea – Zacha9:49
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson14:53
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Butcher2:12
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller2:03
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).