Thu, Oct 25, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 09 | 18 | 124 |
| MIN | 17 | 18 | 211 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:13MINEric FehrAssists: Marcus Foligno, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 14:22MINJonas BrodinGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Devan Dubnyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 3:39LAKKyle CliffordUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:15MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–3
- P3 19:36MINMikko KoivuENAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:54LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54MINNick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:54LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:26MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:26LAKDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:05LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P2 16:42MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:32LAKTanner Pearson: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 5:31LAKAdrian Kempe: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:32MINJordan Greenway: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:36MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P3 17:35MINEric Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Amadio – Wagner4:36
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Thompson – Clifford – Kempe5:14
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Pearson7:50
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo10:11
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Walker8:46
xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Martinez – Doughty11:51
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Doughty2:17
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Read – Greenway9:05
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter9:07
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:08
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund8:13
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Seeler10:55
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:10
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba14:50
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).