Thu, Oct 25, 2018·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 011 | 01 | 119 |
| CHI | 111 | 112 | 214 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith, Corey Crawford · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:09NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Brendan Smith, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 10:33CHIAlexandre FortinGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 15:39CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:51CHIAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Dominik Kahun, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:20NYRBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:08CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:33CHILuke Johnson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:59NYRPavel Buchnevich: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:11NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:28NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P3 19:14NYRJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14CHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Fast – Chytil7:43
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hayes – Fast – Namestnikov2:50
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:00
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Vesey – Buchnevich – Howden8:23
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Smith6:56
xG 0.49–0.38 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Skjei2:10
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei7:12
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Schmaltz – Fortin8:48
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden9:58
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun10:27
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Saad11:32
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Jokiharju15:10
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Manning – Rutta10:16
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson12:58
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).