Thu, Oct 25, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 111 | 09 | 225 |
| DAL | 212 | 319 | 010 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58DALJason DickinsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:17ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 11:30DALRoman PolakAssists: Jason Dickinson, Brett Ritchie · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 3:09ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Nick Ritchie, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 4:53DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 11:16DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Julius Honka, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 18:06DALJason DickinsonAssists: Tyler Pitlick · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P2 3:09DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09ANAMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:09DALEsa Lindell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:40DALMattias Janmark: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:53ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P2 12:04ANABrandon Montour: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:04DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:42DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:14DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:14ANAAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:34DALBen Bishop: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:03ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:34ANABrian Gibbons: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Lundeström3:51
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Street – Steel – Sherwood7:11
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Henrique – Aberg – Lundeström5:22
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Kesler – Cogliano – Gibbons6:23
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Pettersson3:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Pettersson2:37
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Pettersson3:29
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dowling – Seguin8:20
xG 0.64–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Nichushkin6:35
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Spezza – Pitlick – Shore7:29
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin2:09
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:26
xG 1.13–0.48 (70%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Polak – Honka8:53
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Carrick – Heiskanen17:26
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).