Thu, Oct 25, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 9, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 314 | 413 | 29 | 936 |
| CGY | 010 | 015 | 114 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:19PITPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 19:08PITBryan RustAssists: Dominik Simon, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 1:17PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–0
- P2 6:28PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Riley Sheahan, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
- P2 9:19PITPhil KesselAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–0
- P2 19:39PITJack JohnsonPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–0
- P3 13:55PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.09 xG8–0
- P3 18:00CGYJames NealAssists: Sean Monahan, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.09 xG8–1
- P3 18:34PITMatt CullenAssists: Dominik Simon · Slap, 0.08 xG9–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:53PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:07CGYMark Jankowski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:10PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:47PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P2 17:40CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Rust – Simon9:28
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:24
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Crosby – Brassard – Guentzel9:30
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Sheahan9:01
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta15:36
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin16:35
xG 0.92–1.06 (46%)attempts 18–27goals 5–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel13:00
xG 0.22–0.62 (26%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Bennett7:30
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Monahan – Tkachuk5:45
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Czarnik – Dube2:28
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Jankowski – Czarnik4:42
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin15:47
xG 1.08–0.59 (65%)attempts 29–14goals 1–2
- Giordano – Andersson15:53
xG 0.52–0.75 (41%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Stone – Brodie15:28
xG 0.52–0.96 (35%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).