Fri, Oct 26, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 15 | 05 | 02 | 0 | 323 |
| CAR | 08 | 316 | 011 | 06 | 1 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37SJSAntti SuomelaAssists: Evander Kane, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 8:16SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 1:12CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Micheal Ferland, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 5:47SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 10:07CARBrock McGinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 15:14CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Justin Williams stopped
- 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 3. CAR Brock McGinn scored
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 6. SJS Joonas Donskoi stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:02CARTeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:28SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:28CARLucas Wallmark: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:08CARMicheal Ferland: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:09SJSErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Meier7:40
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Couture – Kane – Donskoi5:11
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Gambrell4:49
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Sorensen – Suomela7:12
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson5:20
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Burns – Karlsson3:12
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:11
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Foegele13:54
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark2:50
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov7:25
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Zykov – Roy6:07
xG 0.25–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk16:03
xG 1.19–0.34 (78%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk15:30
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin16:20
xG 1.15–1.34 (46%)attempts 25–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).