Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 012 | 213 | 237 |
| NJD | 19 | 214 | 03 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:50NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson, Nico Hischier · Deflected, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 3:05NJDTaylor HallAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 13:21NJDBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Mirco Mueller, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 15:03FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:45FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:44NJDMiles Wood: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:17NJDEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:51NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:51FLANick Bjugstad: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:58NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 13:57FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:01NJDBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:39NJDSami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:47FLAJuho Lammikko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau4:50
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Mamin4:25
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – McCann – Vatrano4:34
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:47
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Petrovic13:24
xG 0.61–0.84 (42%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad15:34
xG 0.71–1.08 (40%)attempts 21–11goals 1–2
- Weegar – Kiselevich11:09
xG 0.46–0.91 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier11:20
xG 1.26–0.23 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Wood – Dea – Zacha7:53
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Rooney – Anderson6:53
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen10:17
xG 0.73–0.93 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Mueller12:17
xG 1.33–0.52 (72%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Severson – Butcher3:25
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson12:58
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).