Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 6, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 19 | 36 | 622 |
| PHI | 08 | 17 | 08 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:38NYILeo KomarovAssists: Adam Pelech, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 13:20NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 4:58NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 6:28PHIJori LehteraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 8:17NYIAdam PelechAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 8:58NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.20 xG5–1
- P3 11:09NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.17 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:23NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:36NYIJordan Eberle: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:06PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:23PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:06NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 10:37PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Nelson12:23
xG 0.98–0.33 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Bailey – Martin – Cizikas2:33
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Martin – Cizikas2:45
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas3:48
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock14:47
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
- Boychuk – Pelech14:35
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Weise – Laughton4:58
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Lehtera – Weise – Knight2:52
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:22
xG 0.26–0.23 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Patrick5:29
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFolin – Sanheim3:28
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Hagg – Provorov9:37
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov3:49
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).