Sat, Oct 27, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 010 | 14 | 323 |
| BOS | 07 | 012 | 014 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Matthew Peca, Xavier Ouellet · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:39MTLMax DomiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 19:31MTLJordie BennENAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:42BOSDavid Pastrnak: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:24MTLMatthew Peca: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:10MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00BOSTuukka Rask: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:07MTLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:07BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Armia – Danault2:45
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi2:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon5:50
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Drouin – Domi7:42
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Benn13:26
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ouellet – Mete12:31
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Alzner – Reilly14:35
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Donato – Bjork7:09
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:22
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk11:41
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari5:36
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Lauzon10:01
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo14:05
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Moore – Grzelcyk10:41
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).