Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 217 | 08 | 213 | 00 | 438 |
| CBJ | 112 | 316 | 08 | 11 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Tage Thompson, Casey Nelson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:37CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:11BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jake McCabe, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 1:34CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:42CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Riley Nash, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 17:13CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Nick Foligno, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 2:32BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 4:30BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.44 xG4–4
- OT 0:31CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P1 14:11CBJArtemi Panarin: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 6:50BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:11CBJLukas Sedlak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:55CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:15BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P3 8:09CBJZach Werenski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:18CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Skinner – Eichel11:25
xG 1.20–0.60 (66%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Berglund – Larsson – Girgensons10:30
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Sheary – Reinhart8:57
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Okposo – Thompson – Mittelstadt4:13
xG 0.14–0.47 (22%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNelson – Dahlin10:53
xG 1.03–0.88 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen3:08
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella14:03
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:16
xG 0.91–0.38 (71%)attempts 21–7goals 2–1
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson7:49
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen3:58
xG 0.15–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:13
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski13:44
xG 1.26–0.63 (67%)attempts 22–13goals 3–1
- Savard – Harrington11:07
xG 0.81–0.72 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara12:23
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).