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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis

Chicago Blackhawks 3, St. Louis Blues 7

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.

STL winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI2101905324
STL21726314737

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:18STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Zachary Sanford, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:47CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 5:28STLZachary SanfordAssists: David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:50CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 1:39STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P2 5:14STLTyler BozakGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P2 16:59CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
  8. P3 15:40STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
  9. P3 18:02STLAlex PietrangeloENAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–6
  10. P3 19:44STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.17 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:07CHIBrent Seabrook: Closing hand on puck2 min
  2. P2 1:06CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 2:50CHIJan Rutta: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 12:27STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 2:52CHIMarcus Kruger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 18:38STLIvan Barbashev: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 18:38CHIBrent Seabrook: Fighting5 min · PPG
  8. P3 18:38CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
46% to win54% to win
← CHI attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHISTL
24Shots on goal37
1.6Expected goals4.7
52Shot attempts58
24Faceoffs won32
1Power plays5
15Penalty minutes7
12Hits15
7Blocked shots19
10Giveaways4
8Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Schmaltz – Fortin7:11

    xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0

  2. Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden7:04

    xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  3. Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun10:23

    xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2

  4. Anisimov – Kane – Saad14:18

    xG 0.42–0.94 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 3–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestSeabrook – Manning2:09

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  2. Manning – Gustafsson2:44

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Gustafsson – Jokiharju2:57

    xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:43

    xG 0.79–0.30 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2

  2. Sundqvist – Barbashev – Thomas7:09

    xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

  3. Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford10:20

    xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1

  4. Steen – Maroon – Bozak9:16

    xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEdmundson – Parayko14:52

    xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 3–2

  2. Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:19

    xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1

  3. Schmaltz – Dunn10:53

    xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 4.7 xGCHI 1.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #308 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.49 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.

STL winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).