Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 015 | 19 | 232 |
| MIN | 04 | 113 | 211 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54COLMark BarberioAssists: Vladislav Kamenev · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 7:15MINMikael GranlundAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 10:16MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 17:17MINJonas BrodinENGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
- P3 19:18COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:27MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:16COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 11:41MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:04COLMarko Dano: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:42MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:57MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:13COLMatt Calvert: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12COLMarko Dano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:31MINEric Fehr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:04COLNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:11MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:27
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto5:49
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Bourque – Dano – Kamenev3:00
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Andrighetto7:20
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard10:27
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:00
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole2:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter9:24
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund8:50
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Coyle – Read – Eriksson Ek6:28
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:11
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pateryn – Seeler11:54
xG 0.45–0.42 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Suter – Dumba12:01
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin11:28
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).