Sat, Oct 27, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 214 | 313 | 535 |
| VAN | 011 | 09 | 09 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:50PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 16:34PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Dominik Simon, Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 14:15PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 15:14PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P3 17:43PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:44PITCasey DeSmith: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:48PITJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P2 0:12VANAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:45PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:59VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P3 0:20VANAntoine Roussel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 0:40PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin8:11
xG 1.16–0.25 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon2:38
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Grant – Sprong – Simon2:41
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel2:59
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta14:13
xG 1.41–0.41 (77%)attempts 17–16goals 4–0
- Letang – Dumoulin12:00
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel12:54
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Schaller – Motte4:06
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson12:13
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen6:35
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Sutter – Roussel2:04
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Pouliot2:13
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Biega – Del Zotto8:37
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher2:45
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).