Sun, Oct 28, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Rangers 3, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 16 | 112 | 325 |
| LAK | 012 | 215 | 213 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:11NYRVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 7:42NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 11:23LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 13:14LAKIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:28LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Adrian Kempe, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 15:16NYRRyan SpoonerAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 19:05LAKAlec MartinezGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:22NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:22LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:06LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:55NYRCody McLeod: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:41NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27NYRCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:48LAKTanner Pearson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:12NYRNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:45LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- McLeod – Fast – Chytil5:57
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Buchnevich – Howden6:39
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Namestnikov3:34
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Vesey10:09
xG 0.08–0.30 (22%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo12:43
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Staal – Pionk15:03
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith14:04
xG 0.31–0.94 (25%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo15:50
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Lewis – Kempe11:43
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 1–2
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson12:46
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner3:27
xG 0.00–0.03 (6%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort18:47
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Martinez15:24
xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Walker7:52
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).