Sun, Oct 28, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 010 | 19 | 230 |
| DET | 07 | 17 | 39 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44DALGemel SmithAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:44DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:59DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 9:20DETJonathan EricssonGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 19:23DALRadek FaksaAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:36DETJustin AbdelkaderENAssists: Trevor Daley, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:05DALRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:06DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:37DALJustin Dowling: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:28DETFrans Nielsen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dowling – Seguin10:07
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Faksa – Smith – Nichushkin8:27
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Comeau – Janmark – Dickinson9:14
xG 0.11–0.20 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:34
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen2:28
xG 0.13–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:06
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:04
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen8:42
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou7:12
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glendening – Bertuzzi7:59
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin9:02
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green4:43
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen12:01
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Daley – Ericsson15:16
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).