Sun, Oct 28, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 15 | 19 | 06 | 220 |
| CAR | 012 | 119 | 08 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:16CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:35NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:30CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:26NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:10NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:17CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:28CARJustin Williams: Interference2 min
- P2 19:25NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:00CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:42
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Ladd – Komarov9:37
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl7:12
xG 0.01–0.53 (1%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson11:07
xG 0.22–1.13 (16%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Mayfield12:57
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock15:41
xG 0.42–0.89 (32%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Pelech15:01
xG 0.34–1.07 (24%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Teravainen – Aho11:08
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele9:16
xG 0.77–0.37 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- McGinn – Zykov – Roy6:07
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov5:44
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin15:11
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk13:09
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk11:40
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).