Sun, Oct 28, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 111 | 14 | 00 | 322 |
| VGK | 017 | 220 | 115 | 11 | 453 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P2 8:52OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 15:14VGKAlex TuchAssists: Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 18:21VGKRyan ReavesPPAssists: Colin Miller, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 7:49OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Chris Wideman, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 8:17VGKAlex TuchAssists: Nick Holden · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:24VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:02OTTDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Charging5 min
- P1 15:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 15:29VGKJon Merrill: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:29VGKJon Merrill: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:29VGKJon Merrill: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 6:12OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P2 7:29VGKOscar Lindberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27OTTChris Wideman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:03OTTRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min
- OT 2:24OTTMark Stone: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaajarvi – White – Formenton4:56
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Stone – Dzingel12:26
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney10:47
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Chabot8:14
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros2:03
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:37
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hyka – Tuch10:36
xG 1.02–0.02 (98%)attempts 26–3goals 2–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter2:41
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:45
xG 0.57–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:20
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore14:41
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Miller12:04
xG 0.81–0.53 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Holden – Merrill10:19
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).