Sun, Oct 28, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 119 | 215 | 010 | 15 | 449 |
| ANA | 18 | 19 | 113 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:16ANAJosh MansonAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:13SJSRourke ChartierAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 4:10SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 16:59ANAPontus AbergAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Andy Welinski · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 8:36ANAPontus AbergUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:12SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:06ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:54SJSMarcus Sorensen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:54ANAJoseph Blandisi: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:02SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:34ANABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Meier12:53
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Donskoi – Sorensen – Suomela10:33
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Labanc9:18
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier6:35
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon14:48
xG 1.03–0.19 (84%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:33
xG 1.09–0.44 (71%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Burns – Karlsson2:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Lundeström4:27
xG 0.38–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Aberg6:51
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Sherwood5:36
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Blandisi – Steel – Sherwood4:11
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour14:35
xG 0.89–0.58 (61%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Manson – Larsson5:41
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Fowler – Welinski3:33
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).