Mon, Oct 29, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 115 | 017 | 239 |
| VAN | 114 | 211 | 26 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:52MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 5:15VANJake VirtanenPPAssists: Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:51VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Nikolay Goldobin · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 14:37MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 6:29VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 19:20VANBen HuttonENAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:57MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:57VANErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:30MINEric Fehr: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:11VANMarkus Granlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:31MINEric Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59VANLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:38MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:29MINGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:05VANAlex Biega: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:17VANMarkus Granlund: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Read – Greenway3:59
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Read – Greenway2:22
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Eriksson Ek6:06
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter8:13
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin13:18
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Seeler11:26
xG 0.38–0.64 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Suter – Dumba13:20
xG 0.21–0.70 (23%)attempts 7–18goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Schaller – Horvat11:07
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Roussel4:40
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Motte – Virtanen – Gaudette5:41
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Gaudette2:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton15:45
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Stecher11:46
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Biega – Del Zotto8:54
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).