Tue, Oct 30, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 26 | 311 | 18 | 625 |
| PIT | 215 | 010 | 113 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:43NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:28NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 14:24PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 17:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 9:32NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 11:56NYIJordan EberlePPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P2 13:49NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 1:23PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Jamie Oleksiak · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 9:44NYITom KuhnhacklAssists: Nick Leddy, Ryan Pulock · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:23NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:40PITJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:37NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:49PITDaniel Sprong: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 10:15PITJuuso Riikola: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:53NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl7:59
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier8:25
xG 0.41–0.44 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson9:46
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Filppula – Ladd – Komarov9:32
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock14:21
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 4–2
- Boychuk – Pelech11:58
xG 0.47–0.82 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Hickey – Mayfield11:56
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon11:44
xG 1.05–0.16 (87%)attempts 21–4goals 2–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin9:02
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 15–4goals 1–1
- Grant – Rust – Sprong5:21
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Sheahan6:47
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Oleksiak2:38
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel10:38
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Dumoulin – Riikola10:53
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).