Tue, Oct 30, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 214 | 19 | 331 |
| CAR | 112 | 124 | 08 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:54CARMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Valentin Zykov · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 12:22BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 18:33CARDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:42BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:23BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:35CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:46BOSJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29BOSBrandon Carlo: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:01CARJaccob Slavin: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:55BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:36CARJustin Williams: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:20BOSJohn Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06CARLucas Wallmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:42CARMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Pastrnak – Heinen6:47
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk3:16
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk5:37
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari7:34
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Lauzon9:03
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo16:52
xG 0.70–1.11 (39%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
- Moore – Krug10:57
xG 0.20–0.72 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Foegele10:14
xG 0.89–0.18 (83%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov9:29
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- McGinn – Zykov – Roy4:39
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho11:47
xG 0.31–0.74 (30%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin13:43
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 26–10goals 0–0
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk10:15
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- de Haan – Faulk12:52
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).