Tue, Oct 30, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 07 | 04 | 124 |
| NSH | 05 | 212 | 212 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:14VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:27NSHRyan HartmanAssists: Kevin Fiala, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:24NSHRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, P.K. Subban · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:37NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:42NSHViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Roman Josi · Other, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:38NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P1 16:24NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:33VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P2 7:31NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:39VGKJon Merrill: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:54NSHRyan Ellis: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:06VGKDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:15VGKJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:52
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek8:06
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:34
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Haula – Marchessault – Tuch2:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller13:45
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore12:18
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Merrill13:53
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:48
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Jarnkrok9:12
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Bonino – Hartman – Fiala8:56
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons6:09
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm14:38
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin10:09
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis15:49
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).