Tue, Oct 30, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 117 | 06 | 211 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
| SJS | 16 | 014 | 212 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Melker Karlsson · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 4:21NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:13NYRChris KreiderAssists: Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 8:14SJSTimo MeierAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:05NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:58SJSTomas HertlAssists: Logan Couture, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 6. NYR Kevin Shattenkirk scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:01SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:45SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:56NYRMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P3 15:06SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:39SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:16NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Vesey – Howden7:32
xG 0.81–0.03 (97%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Spooner – Hayes7:07
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Spooner – Hayes – Vesey3:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Namestnikov11:24
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Smith14:03
xG 0.97–0.31 (76%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo13:34
xG 1.14–0.69 (62%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Staal – Pionk17:28
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Goodrow – Suomela2:36
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier4:11
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen5:17
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Labanc5:01
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:30
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon3:19
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson6:24
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).