Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Dallas Stars 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 18 | 14 | 219 |
| TOR | 09 | 07 | 116 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:55DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 4:43DALDevin ShoreGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 16:51TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:28DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P2 9:53TORPar Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P2 12:41TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P2 16:02DALMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:12DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P3 5:30DALJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:29DALBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin2:31
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Seguin – Shore – Janmark9:47
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa10:12
xG 0.05–0.24 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Nichushkin8:07
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Honka8:42
xG 0.32–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:50
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:56
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:34
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier5:56
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Johnsson – Lindholm6:03
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner10:23
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott10:52
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev9:24
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly10:19
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).