Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Hartwall Arena, HelsinkiNeutral site
Winnipeg Jets 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 18 | 214 | 436 |
| FLA | 018 | 214 | 06 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:34WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:18FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:14WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:54FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Bjugstad · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:28WPGPatrik LainePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:17WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:31WPGDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:25WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25FLAVincent Trocheck: Embellishment2 min
- P2 4:03WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:29WPGAdam Lowry: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:29WPGAdam Lowry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:03FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:45FLANick Bjugstad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:19WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P3 14:03FLAMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:32FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Tanev – Laine7:43
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Copp – Lemieux – Roslovic3:20
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Connor10:27
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:48
xG 0.46–0.81 (36%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot12:31
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Myers – Kulikov8:27
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:05
xG 0.32–1.16 (21%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:00
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:10
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko3:14
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin6:30
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad11:27
xG 1.04–0.39 (73%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Yandle – Petrovic13:36
xG 0.61–0.67 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Weegar – Kiselevich10:15
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).