Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 013 | 16 | 03 | 0 | 231 |
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20PITDominik SimonPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 14:46NYIJosh BaileySHAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 10:11NYIAnders LeeAssists: Thomas Hickey, Brock Nelson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 12:02PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 3. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey scored
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:34PITJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:34NYILeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P1 4:30NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18PITJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P2 12:33NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:42NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P3 11:01NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:52
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Sheahan7:31
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Grant – Rust – Sprong5:33
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Maatta14:17
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Ruhwedel2:14
xG 0.03–0.05 (39%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel11:22
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Ladd – Komarov11:07
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:29
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier12:24
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson13:31
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock18:10
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Pelech11:50
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield14:24
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).