Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 4, Montréal Canadiens 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 313 | 05 | 431 |
| MTL | 119 | 28 | 317 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:16WSHLars EllerAssists: Matt Niskanen, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:32MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:06MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 6:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 7:59WSHLars EllerAssists: Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 12:53WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 16:56MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- P3 19:38MTLMax DomiGWGAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 19:40MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:23WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:23MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 19:57WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P3 13:01MTLCharles Hudon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky13:01
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Jaskin6:42
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Stephenson9:04
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana12:15
xG 0.48–1.11 (30%)attempts 7–21goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestDjoos – Bowey8:14
xG 0.72–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:57
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Orlov19:10
xG 0.50–0.89 (36%)attempts 14–27goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault10:43
xG 1.52–0.18 (89%)attempts 22–8goals 2–1
- Hudon – Drouin – Domi11:45
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw7:07
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:25
xG 0.16–0.77 (17%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Mete16:00
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Petry – Reilly2:14
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Petry – Benn15:31
xG 1.08–0.90 (54%)attempts 22–15goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).