Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 18 | 213 | 328 |
| DET | 112 | 010 | 39 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54DETMartin FrkPPAssists: Mike Green, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 14:12NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Travis Zajac, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 3:20NJDSami VatanenPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 4:59DETMichael RasmussenPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 12:50DETJustin AbdelkaderSHAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
- P3 19:17DETTrevor DaleyENGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.41 xG2–4
- P3 19:56NJDMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:18DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:20NJDBen Lovejoy: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 8:20NJDBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
- P2 14:33DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14NJDMirco Mueller: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:14DETLuke Glendening: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:44NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:40DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P3 3:30NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:36DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P3 19:10DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56NJDMarcus Johansson: Abusive language2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier11:07
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dea – Rooney4:31
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Wood7:37
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Coleman3:09
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher9:38
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Severson2:37
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson10:05
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Megan – Frk2:34
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi9:59
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:10
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – de la Rose – Rasmussen7:21
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Cholowski11:59
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Daley – Ericsson11:31
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen8:26
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).