Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 110 | 115 | 334 |
| STL | 19 | 39 | 18 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Robert Thomas, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 6:29VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 3:11STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:34VGKErik HaulaAssists: Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:29STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 14:49STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary Sanford · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 8:02VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 11:47STLTyler BozakAssists: Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:00VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00STLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:03VGKBrad Hunt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:31STLVince Dunn: Interference2 min
- P2 17:53STLZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:30VGKTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:44STLBrayden Schenn: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:10VGKCody Eakin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Hyka – Tuch10:34
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare10:06
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek9:05
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:22
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Miller15:24
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Holden – Hunt11:36
xG 0.21–0.41 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore12:58
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Fabbri – Thomas7:26
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:08
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford11:31
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Maroon – Bozak8:57
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:17
xG 1.01–0.65 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Edmundson – Parayko14:29
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Dunn11:51
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).