Thu, Nov 1, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 016 | 09 | 040 |
| EDM | 08 | 29 | 212 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:18EDMDrake CaggiulaGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 19:23EDMJason GarrisonPPAssists: Tobias Rieder · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 6:49EDMDrake CaggiulaSHAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 10:38EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Tobias Rieder, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.21 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:03EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:13CHIHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:13CHIAndreas Martinsen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:54EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:29EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
- P3 12:07CHIErik Gustafsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:03CHIBrandon Davidson: Elbowing5 min
- P3 17:03EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:03EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:03CHIBrandon Davidson: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Hayden – Fortin5:59
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Saad10:08
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Martinsen5:53
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun9:39
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Davidson8:36
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson13:08
xG 0.53–0.75 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju14:54
xG 0.63–1.00 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl10:44
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Caggiula11:13
xG 0.99–0.99 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi8:08
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira9:49
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:40
xG 1.24–0.63 (66%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Garrison – Benning8:58
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse16:41
xG 0.39–1.39 (22%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).