Thu, Nov 1, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 113 | 210 | 28 | 531 |
| LAK | 07 | 214 | 06 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Dale Weise, Jordan Weal · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 10:04LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ilya Kovalchuk · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 10:53PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 14:05PHIOskar LindblomGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 18:41LAKIlya KovalchukAssists: Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 14:27PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 16:49PHIRobert HaggENAssists: Brian Elliott · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:49PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:30PHIChristian Folin: Interference2 min
- P1 10:55PHIJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:49LAKKyle Clifford: Holding2 min
- P2 8:52PHITravis Konecny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:35PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weise – Weal13:47
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Aube-Kubel6:46
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick13:21
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:22
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Sanheim9:59
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov15:10
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–20goals 2–0
- Gudas – Provorov3:00
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Carter – Toffoli5:02
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner6:54
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:12
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Lewis – Pearson – Kempe2:42
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez18:05
xG 1.07–0.76 (59%)attempts 20–15goals 1–2
- Phaneuf – Martinez2:58
xG 0.21–0.21 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Walker4:19
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).