Fri, Nov 2, 2018·Hartwall Arena, HelsinkiNeutral site
Florida Panthers 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 212 | 14 | 426 |
| WPG | 214 | 03 | 017 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 14:29FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:16WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:59FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:34FLAKeith YandlePPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 12:15FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:35WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:18FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:27WPGBrendan Lemieux: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37WPGBrendan Lemieux: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P2 14:37WPGBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:37FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Instigator2 min
- P2 14:37FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:37FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 19:02WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Bjugstad – Malgin10:09
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Mamin4:03
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Barkov12:44
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano11:21
xG 0.19–0.75 (20%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich7:38
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Kiselevich2:54
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:30
xG 0.24–0.87 (22%)attempts 8–21goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:19
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Lowry – Tanev – Laine8:27
xG 0.53–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Connor11:59
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Petan – Lemieux4:41
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot13:29
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:59
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers3:14
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).