Fri, Nov 2, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 6, Vancouver Canucks 7 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 412 | 211 | 00 | 629 |
| VAN | 18 | 38 | 214 | 17 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 1:38COLSheldon DriesAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Colin Wilson · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:18VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Nikolay Goldobin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:08COLIan ColeAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 8:47VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Brendan Gaunce · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 10:32COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 12:36COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 17:33VANElias PetterssonAssists: Antoine Roussel, Troy Stecher · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 1:30COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 10:02VANMarkus GranlundPPAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- P3 18:23COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.14 xG6–5
- P3 19:24VANElias PetterssonAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–6
- OT 4:38VANDerrick PouliotPPGWGAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:14COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P1 13:33COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:50VANTroy Stecher: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:24COLIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:38VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:36COLAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen16:02
xG 0.85–0.22 (80%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Dries10:50
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Soderberg – Bourque – Greer3:10
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto2:20
xG 0.02–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov15:50
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 3–0
- Cole – Girard15:43
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Nemeth12:41
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 0–3
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGoldobin – Boeser – Pettersson10:26
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Eriksson – Roussel – Granlund2:52
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Virtanen – Gaudette4:44
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Gaunce5:39
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Stecher16:48
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 3–1
- Biega – Del Zotto11:21
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Gudbranson – Hutton17:18
xG 0.16–0.76 (17%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).