Sat, Nov 3, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 218 | 07 | 211 | 436 |
| MTL | 112 | 017 | 06 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58MTLMax DomiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 13:42TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:24TBLJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:52TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 15:57TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Brayden Point, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:58TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P1 11:42MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:45TBLMathieu Joseph: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:45TBLBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28MTLTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 13:00MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:40TBLBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:55
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller10:20
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point10:33
xG 0.62–0.79 (44%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne6:43
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Stralman3:28
xG 1.09–0.25 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev9:01
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Girardi – Koekkoek12:22
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:50
xG 0.71–0.08 (89%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi6:08
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Shaw6:25
xG 0.15–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi2:29
xG 0.01–0.38 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Mete13:10
xG 0.84–0.44 (65%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Reilly – Juulsen13:31
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 21–14goals 1–2
- Petry – Benn12:31
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).