Sat, Nov 3, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 216 | 115 | 442 |
| DET | 110 | 16 | 110 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:52DETJacob de la RoseAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 1:15EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:29EDMKyle BrodziakAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 19:24DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Luke Glendening, Martin Frk · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 8:57EDMKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:34DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.41 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:28DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:17EDMKyle Brodziak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Caggiula14:48
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl12:42
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi10:43
xG 0.45–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira9:14
xG 0.61–0.69 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom20:29
xG 1.71–0.64 (73%)attempts 29–13goals 3–1
- Garrison – Benning10:21
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse18:15
xG 0.70–0.69 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – de la Rose – Rasmussen11:40
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Megan – Frk – Bertuzzi2:48
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Mantha2:24
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Megan – Frk – Mantha2:10
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Cholowski7:11
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen4:58
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Daley – DeKeyser6:40
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).